The missiles eliminated Abu Ala, not Hamas
By Reuven Paz
Ma'ariv, March 22, 2004
I’m not one of those who opened a bottle of champagne upon hearing about the assassination of Sheikh Yassin, although I assume that there were those in the IDF who did.
First, Yassin opposed attacks outside of Israel and was a barrier to the expansion of Hamas beyond the country’s borders. He did not support the global jihad of Bin Laden and focused on the war of terror against Israel as a struggle against occupation. With his assassination the fear grows that we are faced with a series of attempts to attack Jewish targets worldwide, either by Hamas, or by supporters of Hamas in Muslim communities in Europe and the US. This is a shot to Israel’s soft underbelly, from which it is not prepared or able to defend itself.
Second, whoever thinks that the missiles that eliminated Yassin will also eliminate Hamas is mistaken. Hamas was not hurt. The legacy will be naturally passed to Abdel Aziz Rantisi or to a collective leadership, at the head of which will be the current leadership of Hamas. Together with the leadership of its armed wing—the Izadin al Kasem brigades. The new leadership may be more careful, and will be forced to take enhanced security measures, but one must remember that Hamas runs a huge religious and social infrastructure in the Gaza strip—An infrastructure that can be operated by an underground leadership.
As opposed to Hamas, which is unlikely to be damaged, it is the Palestinian leadership that is directly hurt by the IDF’s missiles. I am prepared to go out on a limb and say, that the assassination eliminated the career of the Palestinian prime minister, Abu Ala, and perhaps also the career of Mohammad Dahlan [the head of Palestinian Authority security in the Gaza strip]. Whoever gave the order did not appreciate or understand well enough the symbolic importance of Sheikh Yassin, far beyond Hamas and its roots.
The Palestinian Authority, that also will be the target of very harsh criticism in the Palestinian street, has been dealt a critical blow—a blow that will cause a spiraling rise in support for Hamas, even among the silent majority in the Palestinian street. This public will not only seek revenge, but will also turn against the current leadership of the Palestinian Authority, which has effectively lost all control on the ground. I would not be surprised if Sheikh Yassin’s funeral rekindles the intifada as a popular uprising, as in its first days. This, while at the same time the power of those who are opposed to Dahlan in the Gaza strip will be significantly strengthened.
Israel hung a great deal of hope on Dahlan and in fact that disengagement plan is based on a faith in his ability to rule over the Gaza Strip after the Israei withdrawal. The elimination of Yassin eliminates his ability to do that, at least for the foreseeable future. Whoever is unable to manage security in the strip, unable to defend the strip, and unable to control Hamas and the Al Aqsa brigades of the Fatah—will be very quickly seen as someone whose sole purpose is to protect the security of Israel.
In the Arab world one can expect severe responses to Israel’s action. One of the first things that occurred to me when I heard about the assassination was the visit of king Abdullah of Jordan at Sharon’s ranch two days ago. The visit is very similar to the meeting between Begin and Sadat in June of 1980, two days before the Israeli air force blew up the Iraqi reactor.
The act is liable to be perceived in the Arab world as though it had been coordinated with Jordan, and this might invite very harsh responses. Beyond that, after today Yassin will become an Islamic symbol throughout the Muslim world, and his assassination will bring harsh responses beyond the Arab world.
When we talk about safety on the roads we often say: Don’t be right—be smart. Even if Yassin deserved to die, sometimes there are ways of acting that leaders should avoid. This assassination, it seems, will not help Israel in any way.
The writer is the director of the project of research on Islamic movements at the interdisciplinary center in Herzliya.
(Translated by Daniel Breslau)